Eyewitness News In-Depth: Delegate Math

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As the presidential primaries pass the halfway point, Eyewitness News looks at the delegate math and what is possible in both the Republican and Democratic races.

GOP Race (1,237 / 2,472 to win)

Donald Trump – 683 
Ted Cruz – 421
John Kasich – 145

Delegates for Candidates out of the race – 179 (Marco Rubio – 166; Ben Carson – 9; Jeb Bush – 4)

Most delegates will be unbound at convention or switched to a different candidate. State party rules differ. Some of these delegates must stay. However, after the first round of voting some states allow their delegates to switch.

Total delegates allocated so far: 1,428 (58% of total)

Total remaining: 1,044 (42% of total)

Trump needs 554 (53%) of the remaining delegates to win.

Cruz needs 816 (78%) of the remaining delegates to win.

Kasich needs 1,092 delegates and cannot statistically reach this many delegates in the remaining states.

Of the remaining Republican delegates, 568 (54%) of them are in winner-take-all states.

Kasich and Trump, combined, only need 671 delegates to block Trump from reaching a majority of the delegates — creating a contested convention.

If no candidate reaches a majority in the first round of voting then the convention would become a brokered convention.

DEM Race (2,383 / 4,765 to win)

Clinton – 1,167 pledged; 472 superdelegates = 1,639 (needs 744)
Sanders – 836 pledged; 23 superdelegates = 859 (needs 1,524)

Total delegates allocated so far: 2,498 (52%)

Total delegates remaining: 2,267 (48%)

Superdelegates are unique to the Democratic Party’s primary process. They are comprised of party leaders and they are allowed to support any candidate regardless of election results.

Looking at the math, if Bernie Sanders wins a majority of the remaining delegates, that will not be enough.

All Democratic Party primary contests award delegates proportionally so Sanders will need to make up ground not just by winning, but by winning big.

Clinton only needs about 33% of the remaining delegates, 744 total, to clinch the party’s nomination.

Sanders, on the other hand, needs about two-thirds of the remaining delegates if the superdelegates maintain their allegiances.

If superdelegates are taken out of the equation, Clinton would need about 54% of the remaining delegates to reach a majority from pledged delegates alone.

Superdelegates’ allegiances are not set in stone the way pledged delegates are.

Remaining Regions and States

Arizona and Utah are the states with the next contests for both parties. Idaho also has a Democratic contest on the same day, March 22.

The southern states are mostly out of the equation now with the exception of Kentucky’s Democratic primary.

Indiana’s status as a winner-take-all state for Republicans will likely make it vital in each Republican candidates equation for victory.

Here’s a breakdown of the regions and states still up for grabs in the presidential election:

West Coast
California (GOP WTA)
Washington
Oregon

Southwest
Arizona (GOP WTA)
New Mexico
Utah
Colorado (GOP only)

Plains
Montana (GOP WTA)
Nebraska (GOP WTA)
South Dakota (GOP WTA)
North Dakota
Idaho (D only)
Wyoming (D Only)

Midwest/Rust Belt
Wisconsin (GOP WTA)
Indiana (GOP WTA)
Pennsylvania (GOP WTA)
West Virginia
Kentucky (D only)

Northeast
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
New Jersey (GOP WTA)
Maryland (GOP WTA)
Delaware (GOP WTA)
Washington D.C. (D only)

Other D Contests
Hawaii
Alaska
Puerto Rico
Guam
Virgin Islands
 

Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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